Wednesday 3 October 2012

PIMCO says - the US is walking a tightrope...oh so own gold...

http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Damages.aspx


Investment conclusions

So I posed the question earlier: How can the U.S. not be considered the first destination of global capital in search of safe (although historically low) returns?
Easy answer: It will not be if we continue down the current road and don’t address our “fiscal gap.” IF we continue to close our eyes to existing 8% of GDP deficits, which when including Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare liabilities compose an average estimated 11% annual “fiscal gap,” then we will begin to resemble Greece before the turn of the next decade. Unless we begin to close this gap, then the inevitable result will be that our debt/GDP ratio will continue to rise, the Fed would print money to pay for the deficiency, inflation would follow and the dollar would inevitably decline. Bonds would be burned to a crisp and stocks would certainly be singed; only gold and real assets would thrive within the “Ring of Fire.”


http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/GOLD-The-Simple-Facts.aspx

  • For more than a millennium, gold has broadly managed to maintain its real value, even as various currency regimes have come and gone.
  • The supply of gold is constrained, and we see demand increasing consistent with global economic growth on a per capita basis.
  • Given current valuations and central bank policies, we believe investors should consider including gold and other precious metals in a diversified investment portfolio.



  • Comment: Large institutions and then smaller ones will take heed of the advice;
    then advisers; then clients...the tidal wave is heading to shore...

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