What is not priced in now? And by how much?
IF the "solution" to a debt bubble is "inflation" why would you be holding government bonds now? Timing though can be a killer - You can be right and very early.
I suspect few see "runaway inflation". Yet inflation has been the standard since the creation of the Federal reserve...except for some deflation in the 1930s (under the gold standard)
As Kyle Bass said recently (in his letter to investors)
The fallacy of the
belief that countries that print their own currency are immune to sovereign
crisis will be disproven in the coming months and years. Those that treat this belief as
axiomatic will most likely be the biggest losers. A handful of investors and
asset managers have recently discussed an emerging school of thought, which
postulates that countries, as the sole manufacturer of their currency, can
never become insolvent, and in this sense, governments
are not dependent on credit markets to remain fiscally operational.
It is precisely this
line of thinking which will ultimately lead the sheep to slaughter.
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