Sunday 18 November 2012

All looks great UNTIL it doesn't

The 3 years before the GFC and the two years after. The market participants missed the extent of the carnage that was to come. Complacency? Blindsided? Blackswanned?

What is not priced in now? And by how much?

IF the "solution" to a debt bubble is "inflation" why would you be holding government bonds now? Timing though can be a killer - You can be right and very early.

I suspect few see "runaway inflation". Yet inflation has been the standard since the creation of the Federal reserve...except for some deflation in the 1930s (under the gold standard)

As Kyle Bass said recently (in his letter to investors)
The fallacy of the belief that countries that print their own currency are immune to sovereign crisis will be disproven in the coming months and years. Those that treat this belief as axiomatic will most likely be the biggest losers. A handful of investors and asset managers have recently discussed an emerging school of thought, which postulates that countries, as the sole manufacturer of their currency, can never become insolvent, and in this sense, governments are not dependent on credit markets to remain fiscally operational. It is precisely this line of thinking which will ultimately lead the sheep to slaughter.


 
 
 

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