Sunday, 4 November 2012

Irving Fisher in 1933 summarised it well...


In summary, we find that: (1) economic changes include steady trends and unsteady occasional disturbances which act as starters for cyclical oscillations of innumerable kinds; (2) among the many occasional disturbances, are new opportunities to invest, especially because of new inventions; (3) these, with other causes, sometimes conspire to lead to a great volume of over-indebtedness; (4) this, in turn, leads to attempts to liquidate; (5) these, in turn, lead


(unless counteracted by reflation) 
to falling prices or a swelling dollar; (6) the dollar may swell faster than the number of dollars owed shrinks; (7) in that case, liquidation does not really liquidate but actually aggravates the debts, and the depression grows worse instead of better, as indicated by all nine factors; (8) the ways out are either

via laissez faire (bankruptcy) or scientific medication (reflation), and reflation might just as well have been applied in the first place.
 
 
It's a fine line...you go down austerity and you end up with Greece style growth and unemployment...and a lost generation...and a disturbance of the peace.

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